Prediction of gross calorific value of coal based on proximate analysis using multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks

Abstract

Gross calorific value (GCV) of coal was predicted by using as-received basis proximate analysis data. Two main objectives of the study were to develop prediction models for GCV using proximate analysis variables and to reveal the distinct predictors of GCV. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and artifcial neural network (ANN) (multilayer perceptron MLP, general regression neural network GRNN, and radial basis function neural network RBFNN) methods were applied to the developed 11 models created by different combinations of the predictor variables. By conducting 10fold cross-validation, the prediction accuracy of the models has been tested by using R-2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. In this study, for the first time in the literature, for a single dataset, maximum number of coal samples were utilized and GRNN and RBFNN methods were used in GCV prediction based on proximate analysis. The results showed that moisture and ash are the most discriminative predictors of GCV and the developed RBFNN-based models produce high performance for GCV prediction. Additionally, performances of the regression methods, from the best to the worst, were RBFNN, GRNN, MLP, and MLR.